A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
